Inflation in India to be about 5% by March 23

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In the research report, SBI also said the 7.01 percent consumer price index inflation (CPI) announced by the Indian government on Tuesday for June 2022 confirmed the fact that the top point had passed.

According to the SBI report, CPI inflation caused by the factors of the supply side began to rise after September ’21 while the CPI LED demand remained more or less constant.

Both have moved together after February’22 (since the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine conflict). However, in recent months the request to lead CPI inflation has increased a little, while the offer leads CPI inflation continues to moderate, “SBI said.

Obviously, RBI may have to raise further interest rates, a clear decrease trend in inflation caused by the factors of the supply side becomes a good sign for the path of inflation in the future, the report added.

Core inflation has tended to fall from its peak in April (taking the last 12 months as a reference period).

This moderation is due to the fall of transportation and communication contributions from 1.7 percent in April to 1.1 percent in June.

Decreased CPI Core Most products have fallen in demand due to high inflation effects in recent months.

Further correction in the price of precious metals around April has contributed to correction in maintenance and personal effects.

With major countries such as Maharashtra which contributes 100 bps to all Indian CPIs (95 bps in June) is expected to announce the cutting of VAT on the fuel, it is hoped that the core can correct further because it passes the fuel will occur in the following months together With correction in the global price of commodities, said SBI.

In the Industrial Production Index (IIIP) which shows a growth of around 20 percent, the bad news is that in Q1fy23, the announcement of the new investment decreased by around 27 percent to RS 4.35 Lakh Crore compared to RS 5.99 Lakh Crore in Q1FY22 and RS 5.75 Lakh crore in Q4fy22, said SBI.